Friday, October 07, 2005
Hazardfree.co.nz Safety Soapbox Blog
Today on the Safeguard Safety forum, we have had a query concerning other business policy for managing the risk of a potential avian flu outbreak.
One response suggested that NZ need not worry about such things. Especially in light of other potential catastrophic problems having dodged our shores (Aids, SARS, necrotizing fasciitis, (flesh eating disease) and Y2K).
We haven't any certainty that the avian flu will mutate to a human strain, and then turn pandemic. We do have the potential for that. It HAS happened before...it COULD happen again. (Basics of safety: If it happened before...it can and WILL happen again.)
Is the avian flu a significant risk? Lets do a risk assessment:
- Potential harm from hazard? Death
- Frequency of harm from exposure resulting in severe injury? H5N1 has shown a fatality of over 50% in some instances of hospitalised cases (ref CDC website) http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/avian-flu-humans.htm
- Number of people affected? Potentially entire NZ General Population.
- Likelihood of exposure to hazard. Right now in NZ ...very low to none. (Likelihood of exposure if hazard turns pandemic...high). The Avian flu appears to be in Phase 3 of Pandemic development.
Pandemic alert period :
Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact: http://www.moh.govt.nz/moh.nsf/c7ad5e032528c34c4c2566690076db9b/223a4e54035bb94dcc257066001afd5b?OpenDocument
The respondent stated little concern for a fatality rates of 60/megamillions. This of course does not reflect the real exposure to harm ratio.
Perhaps we should no longer prepare and plan for earthquakes (the really big ones are very rare), or have fire drills (after all, fire fatalities occur very infrequently, especially in buildings with sprinkler systems perhaps we should get rid of the sprinkler systems?!
And by all means let's have no contingency plans for force 5 hurricanes entering the
Of course I am being sarcastic. Shell be right is NOT a formula for safety success. Those already familiar with my philosophy will recognise the A+B=C formula for success. Attitude + Behaviour = Consequences. There is a fundamental mathematical preciseness to the science of safety. If it has happened before and we havent changed anything it WILL HAPPEN AGAIN!
In this instance, of pandemic flu, it HAS happened before. The key to success will be to change our Attitude and Behaviours so the consequences dont occur with the same devastating effect.
There is no reason to feel complacent with the risk of a deadly influenza outbreak in
Don't be apologetic for making measured/informed responses to known and potential risks. Pro-active responses to risk is what we (Safety Professionals) are about. We are paid to worry about uncontrolled hazards.
If the companies in NZ took the time to reflect on the potential harm that a pandemic flu could cause, and implemented control procedures in preparation, what is the worst that could happen if no pandemic hits? Perhaps workable communicable disease control policies will emerge.
Stepping off the Soap box
In a couple days, I hope to have an example of a company flu policy posted on this site. If you have one already made up for your company, and are willing to submit it for critique, and share with the rest of us by all means send a copy to glen@hazardfree.co.nz and we may be able to offer more than one version of Policies used by others.
Meanwhile keep working on solutions, it is much more satisfying than dwelling on problems.
Glen
